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"The market is a treacherous and fascinating game. I am a player and this is the quiet place i go to pen my thoughts and emotions."

Monday, June 05, 2006

Journal: Range-bound or Rebound?

JournalLooks like the STI closed down today. However, looking at the top volume and a few of my watchlists, the picture is mixed and green in my closely watched list. I usually view a variety of watchlists and the top volume to gauge the generate intra-day trend of the market. Last 2 weeks were indiscrimately red in most cases, so today's mixed bag must a signal of some sort. I take this to be a sign that the market is sorting out the cream from the chaff.

In a market decline, all stocks fall indiscriminately. However as the dust settles and people re-evaluate their positions and portfolio, the mixed price movements will reflect what is good and what is not. As an example, we can see the strength shown in the food stocks(which I am personally watching closely) and weakness in the transport stocks.

Back to the topic, "Range-bound or Rebound?". Of course the correct answer will be "Who knows really?". =P
My personal opinion is skewed towards range-bound. The market needs some time to sort the good from the bad. Also, I think sentiment is still very cautious after such a decline. People would rather err on the side of caution and not participate rather than risk getting burnt again. I view the 14-day MA as a good resistance level. A breakout of this level and subsequent break down would be a signal to sell.

Hope this helps!

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