Does the saying "Sell in May and Go Away" hold true most of the time? It seems like it is an apt saying for this year. This month was the worst month since 2002.
How about we compare the STI's May performance since 1995? Comparing the end of the month to the start:
1995: The end of May was higher than the start.
Thats 6 lows verus 5 highs for the past 11 years (this year excluded), or about 55.5% chance that a May month in the past 11 years will be a down one.
Convincingly evidence? You decide!
Now what about the next month of June?
1995: The end of june was lower than the start.
Its 5 lows versus 6 highs for the past 11 years, or about 45.5% chance that a June month in the past 11 years will be a down one.
Maybe if we try to spot a continuation trend...
Did the June's trend continue from the May's one? (ie. if May was an uptrend/downtrend, did June's trend follow the same?)
1995: No, the trend of June was the not same as May's.
Its 5 No versus 6 Yes for the past 11 years, or about 55.5% chance that the trend in a June month will follow the trend in May.
My conclusion: There is a 50% chance June will be an up month and 50% it will be down - the same conclusion anyone will come to even if they did not compare past data!
=) What a waste of time...
29/05/06 EDIT: Maybe it was not such a waste of time after all! As fellow blogger and market participant Itachi pointed out, in the World Cup Years of 1998 and 2002, May and June were both down months. This bit of historical data is pretty discerning. Thanks for the keen observation, Itachi! =P